What Rationality Actually Provides:
~10–30% reduction in specific cognitive biases under ideal conditions
Protection against some catastrophic errors
Better calibration of uncertainty
Slow, incremental model refinement
What HPMOR Claims It Provides:
Near-perfect Bayesian updating in real-time, under stress, with minimal data
Reliable solution of millennia-old unsolved problems in weeks
Consistent out-prediction of domain experts with orders of magnitude less experience
Eureka moments that crack fundamental mysteries of reality