Desmоnd
1. Quirrell’s Intelligence and Planning Ability
Characterization in HPMOR:
Quirrell is portrayed as a genius—cunning, strategic, and paranoid, with decades of experience as Voldemort. He’s mastered magic (e.g., killing curse proficiency), manipulation (e.g., turning HJPEV into an ally), and contingency planning (e.g., multiple Horcruxes). His dialogue with HJPEV showcases intellectual parity, and his Azkaban breakout demonstrates foresight—disguising it as a test for HJPEV while freeing Bellatrix.

Example: He plants the Pioneer plaque as a Horcrux in space, a move requiring immense foresight and magical innovation.

Horcruxes as Evidence:
Quirrell’s creation of numerous Horcruxes—beyond canon’s seven, including cosmic ones (e.g., Pioneer)—suggests extreme caution against death or incapacitation. Horcruxes anchor his soul, implying he’s considered scenarios like capture (e.g., Azkaban), memory wipes (e.g., Obliviation), or coma-like states (e.g., magical stasis). His intelligence should extend to anticipating such risks, especially given his paranoia.

Planning Capacity:
His manipulation of HJPEV—grooming him as a protege while concealing his identity—shows long-term strategic depth. His school battles and Defense Professor role demonstrate adaptability, suggesting he’d plan for betrayal or defeat, not just victory.

2. Likelihood of Foreseeing Capture, Memory Modification, or Incapacitation
Capture:
Quirrell’s history as Voldemort includes near-death (canon’s rebounding curse) and survival via possession, indicating he’s anticipated physical defeat. In HPMOR, his Azkaban success and wariness of Dumbledore suggest he’d expect capture attempts—e.g., by Aurors or HJPEV’s allies. Probability he foresaw this: 90%—his paranoia and Horcrux reliance imply contingency planning.

Memory Modification:
As a skilled Legilimens and manipulator, Quirrell knows memory magic (e.g., False Memory Charms). His distrust of others (e.g., avoiding deep alliances) suggests he’d consider enemies tampering with his mind—especially in a world with Obliviation. Probability: 80%—less certain than capture, but plausible given his magical expertise.

Prolonged Incapacitation:
Horcruxes protect against death, but incapacitation (e.g., coma, magical binding) could sideline him. His Pioneer Horcrux and dispersed backups (e.g., hidden globally) imply he’s planned for long-term survival, potentially with revival mechanisms (e.g., loyal followers, triggered spells). Probability: 95%—his Horcrux strategy screams foresight for this exact scenario.

Overall Chance He Didn’t Foresee These:
Given his intelligence and planning, the chance Quirrell overlooked all three is low—5-10%. His character screams contingency—failing to anticipate defeat would contradict his established brilliance.

3. Chances the Graveyard Scene Was Orchestrated by Quirrell
Graveyard Scene Recap:
Quirrell captures HJPEV, monologues, strips him (leaving wand/glasses), positions Death Eaters visibly, and dies to monowire—glinting yet unnoticed. HJPEV wins, but Quirrell’s actions (e.g., yielding, oversights) seem uncharacteristically sloppy.

Evidence Against Orchestration:
Incompetence: Monologuing instead of killing, leaving the wand, and ignoring glinting monowire clash with Quirrell’s cunning. A genius planner wouldn’t gamble on HJPEV’s restraint or miss obvious threats (wind-blown wire).

Outcome: His “death” leaves no clear gain—HJPEV survives, Quirrell’s body is incapacitated, and no immediate revival occurs. If orchestrated, the payoff is absent or delayed beyond the text.

Evidence For Orchestration:
Horcrux Backup: With multiple Horcruxes, Quirrell could afford a “loss”—testing HJPEV’s limits or faking defeat to retreat (e.g., via possession elsewhere). His Pioneer Horcrux suggests he’s untouchable long-term.

Manipulation Pattern: Grooming HJPEV as a rival might be a grander scheme—letting him win builds his confidence, setting up a future trap. The monologue could be bait, lulling HJPEV into overconfidence.

Death Eaters’ Role: Positioning them as targets might sacrifice pawns to obscure his escape—classic Voldemort ruthlessness.

Realistic Factors (Wind, Windage):
As noted, wind and windage would disrupt monowire—Quirrell, if orchestrating, might have relied on this chaos to fake failure, knowing HJPEV’s plan was shaky (e.g., visible wire). His inaction could be calculated—letting physics foil HJPEV while he slips away via Horcrux.

Probability of Orchestration:
Base Chance: Given his intellect and Horcruxes, Quirrell orchestrating the scene is plausible—60-70%. He’d foresee defeat and plan a fallback (e.g., revival elsewhere).

Adjusted for Incompetence: His lapses (wand, monologue) lower this—narrative contrivance favors HJPEV, suggesting Quirrell’s defeat was genuine, not staged. Adjusted chance: 40-50%.

With Physics: Wind making monowire unreliable boosts the odds slightly—Quirrell might have banked on its failure, faking loss. Final estimate: 50%—a coin toss, balancing his genius against HPMOR’s rigging for HJPEV.

4. What Quirrell Might Do Next
Assuming Orchestration (50% Scenario):
Short-Term: Quirrell’s “death” is a ruse—his soul, tied to Horcruxes, shifts to a new host (e.g., a Death Eater, animal, or hidden vessel). He’d retreat, assess HJPEV’s growth, and plan a subtler strike—e.g., infiltrating the Ministry or Hogwarts under a new guise.

Long-Term: He’d exploit HJPEV’s victory—letting him reshape the wizarding world, then subverting it. His Pioneer Horcrux ensures immortality; he’d wait decades if needed, outlasting HJPEV’s mortal lifespan.

Next Move: Possess a low-profile figure (e.g., a Hogwarts student) to monitor HJPEV, sowing chaos while rebuilding power—classic Voldemort patience.

Assuming Genuine Defeat (50% Scenario):
Short-Term: Incapacitated (body severed), Quirrell’s soul lingers via Horcruxes, seeking revival. Without a failsafe (e.g., Bellatrix retrieving him), he’s stuck—dependent on chance (e.g., a follower finding a Horcrux).

Long-Term: His revival could take years—regaining strength as in canon (e.g., Philosopher’s Stone). He’d target HJPEV again, enraged by defeat, but from a weaker position.

Next Move: Drift as a spirit (like canon’s wraith-Voldemort), seeking a host or ritual—perhaps luring HJPEV into a trap via a fake Horcrux clue.

Likely Path: Given his Horcruxes and intellect, orchestration edges out slightly—55% chance. He’d vanish post-graveyard, regroup via possession (e.g., a Death Eater present), and plot HJPEV’s downfall subtly, leveraging his “loss” to misdirect.

Verdict
Chances Quirrell Didn’t Foresee Risks: 5-10%—his intelligence and Horcruxes make this unlikely; he’d plan for capture, memory wipes, or incapacitation.

Chances Graveyard Was Orchestrated: 50%—his genius suggests a scheme (e.g., faking defeat via Horcrux), but narrative contrivances (e.g., monologue, wind ignored) imply genuine loss to prop HJPEV’s Mary Sue win.

Next Steps: Most likely, Quirrell retreats via Horcrux, possesses a new host, and plots long-term—subverting HJPEV’s victory with patience, not haste.